‘Opportune Moment’—Bitcoin And Ethereum Suddenly Braced For A $4.2 Trillion ETF Price Bombshell

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BitcoinBitcoin +5.3% and ethereum have shot higher, climbing as meme stock traders identify a surprising new target.

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The bitcoin price has rocketed back over $70,000 per bitcoin, coming within touching distance of its all-time high, while ethereum has surged around 20% to almost $4,000 per ether as the crypto market braces for a “crucial” vote in Washington this week.

Bitcoin and ethereum’s massive rally comes after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requested an urgent update from those who had filed to issue spot ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—with analysts predicting imminent approval could trigger a $4.2 trillion price earthquake.

The SEC opening communication with potential fund managers has been taken as a sign it could approve a spot ethereum ETF sooner than thought, potentially even this week.

Influential ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg Intelligence upped their odds of eventual approval to 75% from 25% previously, with Balchunas posting to X that it’s an “increasingly political issue”—a reference to U.S. president Joe Biden’s apparent opposition to crypto compared to Republican 2024 nominee Donald Trump’s recent embrace of it.

Meanwhile, the odds of spot ethereum ETF approval by May 31 on Polymarket, a prediction market, surged from 13% to 73%.

“In a surprising move yesterday, the SEC asked exchanges to update and make amendments to their spot ethereum ETF filings on an accelerated basis,” K33 senior analyst Vetle Lunde wrote in a report. “This is a strong indicator that the spot ethereum ETFs will be approved before VanEck’s final deadline on Thursday, May 23.”

A decision is expected this week on first VanEck’s and then the Ark/21 Shares spot ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, due Thursday and Friday respectively.

“The key now will be whether the SEC indeed approves the spot ethereum ETF applications on Thursday,” Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick wrote in an emailed note. “Remember when the same happened for bitcoin ETFs (10 January). The approval came right around the U.S. cash equity market close on the 10th and followed the hacked SEC X account report on the 9th, also around the same time of day.”

Kendrick said he expects the arrival of spot ethereum ETFs on Wall Street to help boost the ethereum price to $8,000 by the end of 2024 and a whopping $14,000 by year-end 2025.

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